The next red zones. Which countries could see coronavirus infection rates skyrocket?

"This data shows a stark and chilling picture of what we can expect as we start to see the COVID-19 pandemic spread to many Africa and Middle Eastern countries," said Sally Austin, CARE International's head of emergency operations. In Papua New Guinea, the Police Minister has said the country's health system is not capable of dealing with an epidemic and measures are being put in place to stop people "clogging" up hospitals. The Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kiribati and Tonga have all introduced measures to declare national emergencies, lock down borders or restrict activities, despite having not yet recorded any cases of COVID-19. Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned world leaders at an emergency G20 meeting that Pacific Island nations will need help to respond to COVID-19 and must be a focus of international support. The tiny US territory of Guam has recorded almost half of all COVID-19 infections in the Pacific Islands region, and the White House has declared it a major disaster site. It's not just local transmissions Guam has to contend with, a United States navy aircraft carrier has been diverted to the island after reporting an outbreak of coronavirus while at sea. "Although there aren't the volume of cases yet in some of these countries, we know that they're very weak in terms of having the ability to understand the epidemic to test and to follow up patients," said Dr Clair Mills from Doctors Without Borders. We know that there'll be a lot of mortality related to the fact that if health systems collapse, people won't be able to seek treatment for other things which are also deadly, like malaria, like TB, like HIV, and other infectious diseases which are still common," she said. But the low rate of testing isn't confined to Indonesia — there are concerns potential infections could be going unrecorded in countries like Laos and Myanmar too, and that migrant workers travelling to their home provinces in Thailand and Cambodia could be unwittingly carriers of the virus. Katherine Fell, senior program manager at Plan International Australia with expertise in Bangladesh, said people living in the densely-populated country of 170 million were already badly affected by climate change and where whole families were tightly packed into the slums of Dhaka.